10 dirt-cheap housing markets

Youngstown, Ohio. Median price: $55,400
1 of 10
Youngstown, Ohio. Median price: $55,400
A Youngstown mansion costs just $150,000
• Where is America's cheapest real estate?

If you're hunting for a real estate bargain, look no further: Here are 10 cities where the typical home costs less than $82,000.

The nation's cheapest major housing market is the area in and around Youngstown, Ohio. There, the median home price barely breaks $55,000, according to the National Association of Realtors. We're not talking about hovels in slums; these are well-kept homes in nice suburban or city settings priced at levels to make consumers in pricey coastal markets ache with envy.

Want something even nicer. There is a seven bedroom, 4,800 square foot home -- 19 rooms total -- well kept and in the historic district on the market for $150,000. That's not a misprint.

Take your time house hunting: That could save you some dough. Fiserv, the provider of real estate information and analysis, is forecasting a further home price decline in 2011 totaling nearly 12% for the year.

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Europe Pushes to Revive UN Resolution Condemning Syria’s Assad

August 01, 2011, 1:28 PM EDT
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By Flavia Krause-Jackson and Bill Varner

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. and European allies today are seeking to resuscitate efforts at the United Nations to pressure Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to halt the bloodiest crackdown yet on anti-government protesters.

In response to a German call, the UN Security Council will meet today at 5 p.m. in New York to discuss the escalating violence in Syria, where security forces killed more than 150 people over the last two days. China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa and India -- which has taken over the council’s rotating monthly presidency -- have blocked adoption of a draft resolution first circulated on May 25.

The attack on Hama, accounting for the bulk of the deaths, is among the most vicious episodes in the uprising that began more than four months ago and was unleashed at the start of the holy Muslim month of Ramadan. The Security Council must urgently respond to the ongoing crackdown by referring the situation to the International Criminal Court, Amnesty International said today in a statement.

“I would like to see a UN Security Council resolution to condemn this violence,” U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague told BBC Radio 4. Still, getting the UN’s decision-making body to act will be “difficult work,” he said.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said that “in these horrifying circumstances, France hopes more than ever that the United Nations Security Council will shoulder its responsibilities by speaking out loud and clear, as the United Nations secretary-general has done several times.”

President Barack Obama, in a strongly phrased criticism of Assad, said yesterday that the U.S. will “increase our pressure on the Syrian regime, and work with others around the world to isolate the Assad government.”

Russia Toughens Stance

In a sign of that Russian opposition to some form of UN action may be thawing, the Foreign Ministry in Moscow put out its toughest statement yet on Syria, saying the use of force against civilians and government representatives is “unacceptable” and “should be stopped.” Officials in Moscow have been reluctant to speak on what they see as a domestic matter.

“There is no real change in the Russian position on Syria, but this statement serves as a kind of insurance policy for Moscow to take further steps at the UN,” Fyodor Lukyanov, an analyst at the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy in Moscow, said by telephone.

Ramadan

Government forces resumed their assault on Hama today on the first day of Ramadan, shelling it early this morning and destroying four buildings, while also attacking the eastern city of Deir al-Zour and the town of Bukamal, Mahmoud Merhi, head of the Damascus-based Arab Organization for Human Rights, said by telephone.

At least 10 people were killed today, Merhi said, while Syrian state television said yesterday that an army colonel and two other soldiers were killed by armed men in Deir al-Zour.

The latest assault came as opposition forces vowed to step up their campaign against Assad during Ramadan. Family and community groups typically gather for evening meals during the month to break their fasts and more people attend special services at mosques. That may make it easier for opposition leaders to organize daily rallies along the lines of those held for the past four months after Friday prayers.

The government “has been very frightened by Ramadan’s onset,” Joshua Landis, a Syria specialist who directs the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma in Norman, said in a telephone interview. “The unfolding crackdown is going to fuel people’s anger.”

No Military Intervention

German Foreign Ministry spokesman Martin Schaefer told reporters in Berlin that it remained to be seen whether the violence over the weekend will prompt reluctant partners to change their position.

“There is no prospect of a legal, morally sanctioned military intervention; therefore we have to concentrate on other ways of influencing the Assad regime and trying to help the situation in Syria,” Hague told the BBC. “It is a very frustrating situation.”

At least 2,000 protesters have been killed since the demonstrations began in mid-March, according to Merhi and Ammar Qurabi of the National Organization for Human Rights.

The unrest poses the biggest challenge to Assad’s rule since he inherited power from his father, Hafez al-Assad, 11 years ago. Assad has blamed the protests on foreign-inspired plots, while conceding that some demonstrators have legitimate demands and pledging political changes.

The European Union imposed an asset freeze and travel ban on five Syrians “responsible for and associated with repression,” Catherine Ashton, the EU’s foreign-policy chief, said in an e-mailed statement, without identifying the people.

--With assistance from Brian Parkin in Berlin, Massoud A. Derhally in Dubai, Ilya Arkhipov in Moscow, Patrick Henry in Brussels and Gregory Viscusi in Paris. Editors: Terry Atlas, Leslie Hoffecker

To contact the reporters on this story: Flavia Krause-Jackson at the United Nations at fjackson@bloomberg.net; Bill Varner at the United Nations at wvarner@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at msilva34@bloomberg.net

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‘Dire’ Finances Forces Rhode Island City Into Bankruptcy

August 01, 2011, 1:00 PM EDT
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By Michael McDonald and David McLaughlin

(Updates with Moody’s report in fifth paragraph.)

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Central Falls, Rhode Island’s poorest city, filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection as it struggles to meet its pension obligations.

The petition was filed today after state officials failed to persuade unionized police, firefighter and municipal retirees to accept voluntary benefit concessions, according to a statement from Robert Flanders, a judge appointed to oversee the city’s finances. Flanders said he asked the court to reject existing collective-bargaining agreements with the unions.

“The current situation is dire, and necessitates decisive steps to put the city back on a path to solid financial footing and future prosperity,” Governor Lincoln Chafee, who joined Flanders in announcing the bankruptcy petition today, said in the statement. “We will be exploring all options to provide quality services at an affordable cost to all taxpayers.”

Central Falls, a city of about 18,000 located about 6 miles (9.7 kilometers) north of Providence, is the fifth municipal entity to file for bankruptcy this year, compared with six in all of 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The filing followed last week’s move by lawmakers in Jefferson County, Alabama, to postpone a vote on proceeding with what would be the biggest U.S. municipal bankruptcy.

Out of Assets

The Central Falls pension plan was expected to run out of assets by October without additional funding or significant concessions from both current employees and retirees, according to a June 17 report from Moody’s Investors Service. The rating company at the time lowered the city’s credit grade one level to Caa1, its 17th-highest of 21, from B3.

The pension’s obligations were $48 million greater than the fair value of its assets as of June 30, 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Central Falls in fiscal 2011 continued its practice of not making its required contribution to the municipal pension and drew on existing plan assets to pay benefits, Moody’s said.

Central Falls has about $21 million of outstanding debt, New York-based Moody’s said. The city’s per-capita income is 50 percent of Rhode Island’s, according to the company.

Gina Raimondo, the state’s treasurer, released a statement today saying she doesn’t expect the bankruptcy filing “to hinder the state’s ability to access the bond markets in the coming months.”

Frank Bailey, a U.S. bankruptcy judge in Massachusetts, will oversee the bankruptcy for the city, according to a court filing.

The case is In re City of Central Falls, 11-13105, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Rhode Island (Providence).

--With assistance from Martin Z. Braun in New York Editors: Mark Tannenbaum, Andrew Dunn

To contact the reporters on this story: Michael McDonald in Boston at mmcdonald10@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Tannenbaum at mtannen@bloomberg.net.

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‘Embarrassed’ Corporate Leaders Quiet on Debt-Ceiling Fight

August 01, 2011, 12:44 PM EDT

More From Businessweek

Debt-Limit Agreement to Likely to Pass, Republican Leaders Say

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Obama Talks With Party Leaders on Debt Limit Amid Standoff

Congress Heads Into Weekend Deadlocked on Plan to Avert Default

By Mark Drajem

(Updates with comment from Donohue in 19th paragraph.)

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- With the U.S. government on the verge of a historic default, the country’s largest business lobbying group took to the halls of Congress last week to press lawmakers to support the Panama Free-Trade Agreement.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce sponsored a “door knock,” with 80 members handing out Panama hats to tout a trade deal with a nation that has a smaller economy than Akron, Ohio. To critics, the Chamber event illustrates what has been a deafening silence from U.S. executive suites on the gridlock in Washington over raising the federal $14.3 trillion debt ceiling.

“They haven’t done nearly enough to sound the alarm,” said Jim Kessler, vice president for policy at Third Way, a Washington research group that describes itself as advocating “moderate policy” and has executives from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on its board. Executives “think this is all Washington theater, and it will all get done in the end.”

The Chamber, which last week began to issue almost daily pleas for the debt ceiling to be raised, today urged lawmakers to approve the package worked out by President Barack Obama and congressional leaders over the weekend. In the months leading up to the crisis, company lobbyists and executives had mostly steered clear of the fight.

At a closed-door meeting with Chamber lobbyist Bruce Josten last month, Democratic Senators Mark Begich of Alaska and Mark Warner of Virginia upbraided the group and its member companies for not twisting arms hard enough to get a compromise package worked out, according to two people familiar with the discussion who spoke on condition of anonymity because the meeting was private.

‘Wishy-Washy’

Begich contrasted the lobbying, television advertisements and political giving the Chamber invested fighting off health- care legislation in 2009 and 2010 with its “wishy-washy” approach on the debt ceiling.

“I’m amazed,” Begich said in an interview July 27. “They spent millions saying that health care would be the end of all business in America, but the end of all business in America is in five days from now.”

On the debt debate, corporations have kept their lobbying money on the sidelines. Of the 10 companies with the largest lobbying expenditures in 2011, two said they were lobbying on the debt ceiling during the first six months of this year, according to disclosure forms filed with the Senate: insurer Blue Cross/Blue Shield, the third-largest lobbyist, and drugmaker Pfizer Inc., the ninth-largest.

Buffett, Cote

None of the other companies mentioned the issue. Together those 10 spent more than $90 million on lobbying from January through June, according to data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics, a Washington research group.

With notable exceptions such as Warren Buffett, the billionaire chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., and David Cote, chairman and chief executive of Honeywell International Inc., CEOs generally have shied away from speaking out individually on the issue.

“It’s unfortunate that the business interests have not stepped forward as loudly as they should have,” Bill Daley, the White House chief of staff, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television July 26. “You’ve had a silence from the business community to the political establishment over the last number of years that’s been unfortunate.”

Warren Bennis, a professor of business at the University of Southern California who has written about corporate leadership for four decades, says CEOs may have been silenced by positions advocated by some Republicans, such as Tea Party enthusiasts who support an increase in the debt limit only if it’s accompanied by greater spending cuts than the increase and doesn’t raise taxes.

‘Embarrassed’ by Republicans

“They’re caught,” Bennis said in an interview July 29. “They tend to be Republican and they are embarrassed by what they see from Republicans,” Bennis said. “It’s a real stalemate and CEOs want to stay clear of it.”

After negotiations between Republicans and Obama broke down, chief executives of companies such as General Electric Co., BlackRock Inc. and Citigroup Inc. started to push harder for a breakthrough last week, mainly by signing group letters sent to Congress and the administration.

Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO Lloyd Blankfein and JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief Jamie Dimon were among 14 financial executives who signed a July 28 letter by the Financial Services Forum, a Washington trade group that represents the largest banks.

On July 27, the Business Roundtable sent House lawmakers a letter supporting a bill pushed by Republican Speaker John Boehner that would cut $915 billion in spending over 10 years in exchange for a two-step process of raising the debt ceiling and considering a balanced-budget amendment. Today, the Washington- based group backed the compromise package as well.

115 Associations

Some 115 associations, but no individuals, were listed as signees. The Washington-based Roundtable says on its website that it was “founded on the belief that businesses should play an active role in the formation of public policy.”

The Boehner bill passed the House on July 29, only to fail in the Democrat-controlled Senate later the same evening. After weekend negotiations, Obama said last night that leaders of both parities in the House and Senate reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling and cut the deficit. The Senate and House may vote as early as today on the compromise.

“We have a great deal of hard work ahead of us to restore our economy and put our nation’s finances on a sounder footing,” U.S. Chamber President Thomas Donohue said today in a statement. “This agreement takes us a step in the right direction and is the right thing to do.”

‘Shaking Their Heads’

Some corporate leaders interviewed by Bloomberg reporters before the weekend talks that produced the compromise said lawmakers should just agree to raise the limit and move on.

“When I talked to my colleagues, they’re all shaking their heads basically in dismay,” Albert Stroucken, CEO of Owens Illinois Inc., the world’s largest producer of glass bottles, said in an interview.

“I am surprised we’ve gotten this deep and it’s unresolved,” Rockwell Automation Inc. Chief Financial Officer Ted Crandall said in an interview as negotiations intensified last week. He declined to say which plan under debate the company may prefer.

Walter Robb, co-CEO of Whole Foods Market Inc., also lamented that “the atmosphere is so hyper-partisan” in Washington. He hasn’t spoken out publicly on the debt issue himself, he said in an interview, because “we’re grocers and we’re really just concentrated on growing the business.”

At United Parcel Service Inc., CEO Scott Davis and Chief Financial Officer Kurt Kuehn wouldn’t discuss which debt reduction approach they might prefer, said Norman Black, a spokesman for the world’s biggest package-delivery company.

No Interest

“Neither Scott nor Kurt have any interest at this point in addressing specific plans, nor have they tried to study all the specifics of some of the proposals that are out there.” Black said in an interview. Executives at 18 other companies contacted by Bloomberg declined to comment or didn’t return phone calls and e-mails seeking comment.

Berkshire Hathaway’s Buffett, one of the CEOs quoted most often on the debt issue, spoke out on the matter as early as last April, saying at the company’s annual shareholder meeting that it was “most asinine” for lawmakers to consider not raising the debt limit.

“If you don’t get a deal you are putting a gun to your head,” Buffett said in a Bloomberg Television interview July 8. “Nothing may happen, but we don’t have a parallel with it in the past.”

Cote, Honeywell’s CEO, served on Obama’s debt commission and has called for reducing the deficit through tax increases as well as spending cuts in interviews on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Bloomberg Television and other programs and in op-ed articles.

‘Job Destruction’

“For a bunch of people down there who spend all their time talking about job creation, they’re actively on a path to job destruction right now,” Cote said in an interview with Bloomberg News on July 28.

The Chamber of Commerce says it has been pushing in a series of letters this year for Congress to agree to raise the cap. Chamber President Thomas Donohue in April warned that the debt ceiling was a bigger risk to the economy than a possible government shutdown, and vowed to press lawmakers to act.

What the group hasn’t done is mobilize local members to knock on doors in the Capitol, the kind of retail-level pressure for which it is famous in Washington.

“It is almost impossible to do things like that when there is no proposal to rally behind or oppose,” Blair Latoff, a spokeswoman for the Chamber, said in an e-mail. Comparing the debt ceiling to the lobbying on the trade deals with Panama, South Korea and Colombia is comparing “apples and oranges,” she said.

There is still “the expectation by the business community that Washington is going to figure this out,” said Ron Bonjean, a lobbyist who was an aide to Dennis Hastert when he was House speaker.

Unlike the lobbying frenzies over health-care legislation and overhauling the financial system in the previous two years, companies just want a deal, Bonjean said in an interview.

“How they get it done, they don’t care.”

--With assistance from Rachel Layne in Boston, Thomas Black in Dallas, Leslie Patton in Chicago, Natalie Doss in New York and Jack Kaskey in Houston. Editors: Joe Winski, Steve Geimann

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Drajem in Washington at mdrajem@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Larry Liebert at lliebert@bloomberg.ne

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U.A.E., Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Cut Rates

The Gulf Cooperation Council The United Arab Emirates decided to cut their bank repository rate by 0.25% to 5.25%; Saudi Arabia decreased its benchmark rate for deposits also by 0.25% to 4.0%; Qatar and Bahrain reduced their deposit rates by the same amount — 0.25% to 4.0%. Kuwait refrained from changing the country’s interest rate, because they’ve already removed their currency’s peg to dollar back in May 2007.

This rate change followed the cut by U.S. Federal Reserve decision to lower the rate from 4.50% to 4.25% yesterday on December 11. Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia and U.A.E., started to peg their national currencies to dollar decades ago, and they have to maintain the similar interest rates to keep this peg up.

Lowering the interest rates goes against the general monetary policy of the Gulf countries in the way that it stimulates inflation, which is already very high due to the devalued dollar. Fighting inflation is an important task stated by the government of U.A.E. and this rate cut can only boost up the prices growth.

Although this step contradicts anti-inflation policy, it is almost doubtless that such a small rate change won’t hurt a lot. The possibly better side effect of this change would be another reason for consideration of the dollar peg abandonment by these oil countries.

This entry was posted on TopForexNews on Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 at 9:16 pm and is filed under Economic Indicators. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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O.K., Smart Guys: Fix the Energy Problem How should the U.S. solve its energy problems? The experts brainstorm

Norman Pearlstine, Thomas Kuhn, Bob Shapard, Carol Browner, Jigar Shah, and T. Boone Pickens Henry Leutwyler
This Week

August 1, 2011
Why the Debt Crisis Is Even Worse Than You Think

The U.S. first became a net importer of oil in 1948. The intervening decades have led Americans down a steady path of price spikes, shortages, and compromised foreign policy decisions. Imported fuel means expensive gasoline, lost jobs, and hobbled industries, while climate change poses risks as dramatic as they are difficult to assess. So how do we fix our fuel and energy problems? To answer that question—the first in a quarterly series called Fix This—Bloomberg Businessweek Chairman Norman Pearlstine gathered BP Capital Management’s T. Boone Pickens; Bob Shapard, chairman and chief executive officer of Oncor Electric Delivery and chairman of GridWise Alliance; Carol Browner, former director of the White House Office of Energy and Climate Change Policy for President Obama and EPA administrator for President Clinton; Jigar Shah, CEO of the Carbon War Room; and Thomas Kuhn, president of Edison Electric Institute. Their conversation has been condensed and edited.


What do we mean when we talk about an energy crisis? Is that an appropriate term for framing this discussion?

Shah: The word energy is very confusing. Energy includes both transportation fuel—which I think people are very concerned about—and coal, solar, wind, and other things that produce electricity. People confuse the two, and while we have fast-rising prices of electricity—5 percent rate increases per year since 2000—the fourfold increase in oil prices since 1999 is a much bigger problem in terms of economics than our electricity problem.

Shapard: People perceive there to be a crisis in this country environmentally with carbon and other emissions. I think transportation is the place you go for the biggest impact, and I think it’s a combination of natural gas and electricity that can solve our transportation problem. You can convert a significant portion of our fleet to natural gas and/or electricity. It addresses our dependence on foreign oil, but just as importantly it addresses the environmental issues. While coal plants and power plants are viewed as the villain when it comes to carbon, [giving off] 39 percent of the emissions, 31 percent of the emissions are [from] cars, and the important point is we know the solution on cars.

Kuhn: Never in the history of the world have we been so dependent upon one commodity as we are on oil right now, and every recession has been preceded by a spike in the price of oil. A $10 increase in oil causes $75 billion to come out of this economy. There are a lot of electric cars that are going on the road all over the world, in India, China, and elsewhere. I drive a Chevy Volt. I haven’t visited a gas station in three months. I plug in, I drive at 2¢ a mile compared with 10¢ to 12¢ a mile—that’s about $1 a gallon equivalent.

Browner: One of the first things we did when [President] Obama came to office was set the first fuel-efficiency standards in almost 20 years. We said we can make cars more efficient, and that’s been making our automotive industry stronger.

Pickens: If you remember, President Obama, when he got the nomination, said in 10 years we will not import any oil from the Mideast. I was impressed with that. It’s different than all the other people that ran for President. They said elect me, and we’ll be energy independent. So I thought he’s got a plan, and I hope that he does have a plan.

If there’s a consensus here that we don’t have to be reliant on imported oil, why are we?

Browner: Some of these changes will require congressional action, because what we need to do is give the private sector the certainty and the predictability so that they’ll make the large-scale investments in these changes. They don’t want to start making investments where they think I’m going to build something but I’m not able to sell it.

Shah: Just to be slightly argumentative, I think we were in exactly the same place for both electricity and transportation in the 1970s. For electricity, we opened up that market. I started one of the largest solar companies in the U.S. We had that opportunity because we had net metering, we had streamlined interconnection standards, we had all sorts of ways for us to connect to the grid and actually provide [a new service to] customers who were dissatisfied with the services they were already being provided. Today if you own a gas station, you’re most likely under a franchise agreement with a large oil company that doesn’t allow you to add an alternative fuel station without their permission.

You talk to people in Washington all the time, Boone. Does anybody understand the problem well enough to know how to address it?

Pickens: Get yourself a crisis, and then something will come out of Congress. But we’re sitting here with a bill ready to go in the house, HR1380. [Editor’s note: HR1380 would amend the tax code to encourage investment in alternative energy.] There are 250 million vehicles in America: All I’m trying to address is 8 million 18-wheelers. Go to the past 10 years, and look at our costs with OPEC—$1 trillion in 10 years. The largest transfer of wealth from one group to another. Now go forward 10 years and take [the price of] $100 a barrel forward, which I think is being extremely conservative. That’s $2.2 trillion. Just take the 18-wheelers, that’s 2.5 million barrels a day. Now the $2.2 trillion that we’re going to pay 10 years in the future. … You cut OPEC in half with 8 million vehicles.

Browner: Between what Mr. Pickens has been talking about in terms of the long-haul vehicles and the commitment on electric cars, it would be a huge change in our fleet in this country.

Pickens: Don’t call me Mr. Pickens, O.K.? It makes me feel old when you do that.

Browner: Well, it’s respectful.

Is technology a place that can give us clean or cleaner coal or allow us to do more aggressive fracking for natural gas?

Browner: I personally think the natural gas industry needs to be fully transparent. What scares people is what they don’t know. Right now [fracking] is regulated differently in different states, and I think if the industry would join together and say we’re going to disclose exactly what we’re doing, we’re going to take a giant step forward.

On energy, we certainly know a lot of things that we could do very, very quickly. Energy efficiency is not complicated. There’s a nice little company in Washington, Opower, that works with utilities to send the customer an explanation of how much electricity they’re using in comparison to their neighbors, and you know what the effect of that is? People stop using as much electricity. They don’t want to be less efficient than their neighbors are, and they’re able to achieve a 1 percent to 3.5 percent reduction.

Shapard: If we could reduce electricity consumption by 10 percent, you’d save $25 billion a year in energy costs, you’d reduce CO₂ by about what you get in 10 percent electric vehicle penetration. The problem is people don’t know how to do it. Think about the way you buy electricity today. It’s like going to the grocery store, throwing groceries in your bag, walking out the front door, and once a month the grocer sends you a bill for $800. You didn’t break down eggs from milk from bacon. That’s the way you get electricity, just a big lump bill. If we can give you real-time feedback, studies have shown you’ll use less, you’ll use it smarter.

Shah: I love Opower, but ultimately energy efficiency through individual action is just people spending money out of their own pocket. [It] hasn’t worked for 35 years. I really don’t believe it.

Browner: People make wise decisions when they have access to information. Do you know what percentage of people now use a seat belt? It’s over 90 percent.

Shah: But it’s mandated. There’s a law.

Browner: We got there by educating people.

When we talk about the automotive industry, is the change going to come out of Detroit?

Browner: It’s going to come through the regulators. What regulations do is they create market opportunities for the capital investments, because they create predictability and certainty. When the President said all cars are going to be 35 miles per gallon for the average fleet by 2017, the automotive industry knew what kind of investments they needed to make.

Shah: Here’s one thing that we don’t have in transportation, which I think is critical: There is almost no way in hell that you’re going to get an entrepreneur into transportation. There’s at least 15 different engine technologies that have been invented since the 1960s, but only someone with 50 full-time regulatory affairs people can actually get through the National Transportation Safety Board, through all the EPA regulations, and all of the other things to actually bring a new car to market. Like the group that won the X Prize, right? That’s an actual gasoline-powered vehicle that goes 120 miles to the gallon, and it’s an extraordinary engineering feat. I guarantee you that thing is never going to come to market.

What can we look to that can change the equation in terms of electric vehicles?

Kuhn: Battery technology is making major advancements. Lithium ion batteries [are] coming from a lot of government-supported research with the automobile companies and other companies around the world.

Pickens: Well, don’t end up on a Chinese battery.

Shapard: Even the auto companies are telling us that within five years the price of these batteries could drop in half and the functionality grow.

Shah: But the beauty of the electric vehicle is the business model innovation. There [are] 17 things that you can do that I’ve counted, and you might be able to do more, with an electric battery as an electric utility. The grid’s got to stay at 60 hertz to keep everything running well, and you can use batteries to do this instead of spending reserves with natural gas, which is far more expensive.

Browner: So what you’re saying is when I’m not driving, my car would become part of the electric utility system?

Shah: In California their peak demand for electricity is roughly 60,000 megawatts. If you have 250,000 electric cars, just 250,000 out of 30 million cars they probably have over there, at 20 kilowatts a piece, which is what a lot of these full electric cars are, that’s 5,000Mw. So you now have one-twelfth of the entire grid of storage.

The problem is people go to the dealership and will never buy an electric vehicle. So what you have to do, and entrepreneurs are doing this now, is convert these into vehicle services contracts. You say here’s a free car, just pay me $400 a month, which is what you would have paid for your lease payment, and I’ll get the $4,000 a year out of the utility because you don’t want to deal with the paperwork.

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U.S. Default May Discourage Americans From Saving, Borzi Says

July 26, 2011, 12:58 PM EDT

July 26 (Bloomberg) -- A U.S. default would be “very, very disruptive” to retirement savings and the nation’s pension system, a Labor Department official said today.

A default on debt may have a “profound effect” on the rate of savings in retirement plans such as 401(k) and individual retirement accounts, said Assistant Secretary of Labor Phyllis Borzi at a hearing in Washington today. Investors may be “less likely” to put money in them because of fears that they wouldn’t be able to easily access their funds as the result of restrictions on withdrawals from tax-deferred retirement savings, she said.

“Nothing good could come from an American default” in terms of the pension system, said Borzi. Some pension funds, particularly the larger ones, have investment policies that require them to hold AAA bonds and most of them have U.S. Treasuries, Borzi said. Fiduciaries for those plans would have to figure out how not to violate their investment guidelines if U.S. government bonds were downgraded, she said.

President Barack Obama said yesterday the U.S. may experience a “deep economic crisis” if leaders fail to reach a deal and the nation defaults, while House Speaker John Boehner said the president “wants a blank check” to keep spending. Boehner, an Ohio Republican, and the Democratic leader in the Senate, Harry Reid of Nevada, unveiled competing plans yesterday to raise the $14.3 trillion debt limit.

Borzi responded to questions about the debt limit at a hearing before the House Subcommittee on Health, Employment, Labor and Pensions on a separate issue related to the extent of fiduciary responsibility for those giving investment advice to workers with retirement accounts.

U.S. retirement assets totaled $18 trillion as of March 31, according to the Investment Company Institute in Washington. Savings in IRAs were $4.9 trillion at the end of the first quarter, while assets in 401(k)-type plans were $4.7 trillion, ICI data show.

--Editors: Alexis Leondis, Rick Levinson.

To contact the reporter on this story: Margaret Collins in New York at mcollins45@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rick Levinson at rlevinson2@bloomberg.net.

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Dollar, Stocks Slide, Default Risk Rises Amid Debt-Limit Fight

 July 26, 2011, 12:46 PM EDT
By Stephen Kirkland and Nikolaj Gammeltoft

July 26 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar slid to a record low versus the Swiss franc, stocks fell and the cost of insuring U.S. debt rose to a 17-month high as President Barack Obama dueled with House Speaker John Boehner over the U.S. debt limit. Commodities recovered from earlier losses.

The dollar depreciated against all 16 major peers at 12:13 p.m. in New York and dipped below 80 centimes versus the franc. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.2 percent to 1,335.35 and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.4 percent. Credit- defaults swaps on U.S. debt increased two basis point to 58 basis points. The S&P GSCI Index of 24 commodities climbed 0.6 percent, rebounding from a 0.7 percent drop, as zinc, cotton and copper added at least 1.5 percent.

Obama said yesterday the U.S. may experience a “deep economic crisis” if leaders fail to reach a deal and the nation defaults, while Boehner said the president “wants a blank check” to keep spending. Stocks were also pressured after home prices fell the most in 18 months, 3M Co. forecast earnings that trailed analyst estimates and United Parcel Service Inc. said the third quarter will be “fairly slow.”

“We have multiple sources of uncertainty, including what’s happening in Washington with the debt ceiling,” Mark Freeman, co-chief investment officer at Westwood Management Corp. in Dallas, said in a telephone interview. His firm oversees $14 billion. “The longer the uncertainty goes on, the greater the risk is that it will negatively affect businesses.”

‘Theme of the Day’

The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six trading partners, declined 0.6 percent for the fifth decline in the past six days. South Africa’s rand, Sweden’s krona and the Norwegian krone rose more than 1 percent to lead gains against the U.S. currency.

“The theme of the day is once again sell the dollar,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com, a unit of Gain Capital Holdings Inc., an online currency-trading company. “Playing this argument out in public, rather than trying to iron out differences behind closed doors, is causing shock waves in the markets. Every public spat is a step back from reaching an agreement by the Aug. 2 deadline.”

Obama delivered his message yesterday in a prime-time television address from the White House, while Boehner spoke afterward from the Capitol. Earlier in the day, Boehner, an Ohio Republican, and the Democratic leader in the Senate, Harry Reid of Nevada, unveiled competing plans to raise the $14.3 trillion debt limit.

Two-Step Plan

Boehner said today that his two-step plan to raise the nation’s debt limit and cut spending can pass both chambers of Congress, and he hopes Obama would sign it.

“To think about the fact that we’re a week away from a default, or a pseudo default, is a reflection of the fact that Washington is less than a place of great intellectual wisdom,” Michael Steinhardt, whose hedge funds returned more than 20 percent a year for almost three decades, said on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness with Margaret Brennan.”

The S&P 500 extended losses after yesterday slumping 0.6 percent. All 12 stocks in a gauge of homebuilders declined after home prices in 20 U.S. cities dropped in the year ended in May by the most in 18 months, adding to evidence the housing market is struggling. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 4.5 percent from May 2010. Other data showed sales of new homes unexpectedly declined for a second month in June.

Consumer Confidence

Stocks pared losses in the U.S. after confidence among American consumers unexpectedly rose in July from an eight-month low, led by a rebound in the outlook for jobs over the next six months. The Conference Board’s index climbed to 59.5 from a revised 57.6 reading in June that was lower than previously estimated.

3M slid 4.6 percent after projecting full-year earnings that trailed analysts’ estimates after lower demand for LCD televisions curbed sales in its display and graphics business, the company’s third-biggest unit. United Parcel Service Inc. retreated 4.4 percent as the shipping company said it expects a continued “extremely sluggish” U.S. business environment.

Gains in technology companies helped limit losses in stocks. Broadcom Corp., the supplier of communications chips for Apple Inc.’s mobile devices, surged 9.5 percent after also forecasting sales that topped estimates. Netflix Inc., the mail- order and online film-rental service, tumbled 9.2 percent after its forecasts missed projections.

Baidu, India

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed 0.7 percent, led by a rally in technology companies after Baidu Inc. reported earnings. India’s Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index dropped 1.9 percent, the most in two weeks, as the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate more than economists estimated.

The New Zealand dollar climbed as much as 1.2 percent to a record versus the greenback as investors sought alternatives to the U.S. currency. China’s yuan advanced as much as 0.1 percent against the dollar to its strongest level in 17 years after the central bank placed the currency’s reference rate at a record high.

Copper advanced 1.6 percent as a strike at BHP Billiton Ltd.’s Escondida copper mine in Chile, the world’s biggest, entered a fifth day. Corn for December delivery rose 0.2 percent on the Chicago Board of Trade and soybean futures climbed 0.9 percent as dry weather in the Midwest worsened crop conditions in the U.S. Gold for immediate delivery was little changed at $1,613.50 an ounce following yesterday’s rally to a record $1,624.07.

--With assistance from Shiyin Chen in Singapore, John Deane, Michael Patterson, Andrew Rummer, Michael Shanahan, Garth Theunissen and Daniel Tilles in London and Jimi Corpuz and Margaret Brennan in New York. Editors: Michael P. Regan, Nick Baker

To contact the reporters on this story: Stephen Kirkland in London at skirkland@bloomberg.net; Nikolaj Gammeltoft in New York at ngammeltoft@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net

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Thailand’s minimum wage increase raises concern

    July 17, 2011
    Boris Sullivan

The private sector has expressed its concern over the plan of the new Pheu Thai-led government to raise minimum wage to 300 baht per day across the country, saying that the measure will prompt an increase of 140 billion baht a year to the capital labor cost.

Thai Chamber of Commerce TCC Vice-Chairperson Pongsak Assakul said the domestic private sector and a number of foreign investors have already been worried about the huge impact from the upcoming government’s policy on the production cost.
hundreds baht banknote

The Pheu Thai Party earlier promoted raising the minimum wage of workers across the country to Bt300 per day



Mr Pongsak viewed that small and medium businesses are likely to receive impacts the most. He suggested that the government enforce assistance packages in order to alleviate the consequences if it really wants to forge ahead with the minimum wage adjustment.

Apart from the aforementioned impact, it is worrying that Thai and foreign investors might shift their production base here to other countries which offer lower wages but have similar investment climate.

Nevertheless, the TCC vice-president stressed that the Thai business sector is ready to work and discuss with the new government closely for long-term benefits of the country.

via Private sector worrying about minimum wage rise : National News Bureau of Thailand.

The Pheu Thai Party earlier promoted raising the minimum wage of workers across the country to Bt300 per day and starting a  minimum salary for new graduates from Bt15,000 per month, campaign promises which are believed to have drawn a large number of votes for the party in Sunday’s election.

Mr Jarupong said the Pheu Thai-led government will raise the minimum salary per month to Bt15,000 $500 for civil servants and state enterprise employees this October, while a minimum daily wage hike is expected to begin in January 2012, as the government must talks with the private sector first.

The wage increase will be put into effect after the government creates better understanding on the matter with the private sector and finds appropriate solutions for them such as a corporate income tax reduction and provision of new export markets, according to Mr Jarupong.”The policy on minimum wage rise to Bt300 per day is aimed at helping grassroots people. We affirm that this policy will be equally implemented in every province,” Mr Jarupong promised.

Prime minister-to-be Yingluck Shinawatra on Wednesday said she welcomes opinions and comments from the business community on her Pheu Thai Party campaign pledge to increase Thailand’s minimum wage to Bt300 per day as discussion on pros and cons was needed before implementation.

The private sector aired its disagreement with the planned daily minimum wage, branding it as only political campaign ploy to win votes from the electorate.

Ms Yingluck said all opinions and comments were welcome as her Pheu Thai Party is willing to discuss the matter with all stakeholders.

    “Pheu Thai is not rushing to increase the daily minimum wage without thinking about the negative impact and damages that may arise,”

she said, referring to the consequences of such an action. “I am confident that the issue can be discussed.”

Asked whether she is concerned that the plan to increase the minimum wage might not be put into practice, Ms Yingluck said, “As long as there is a will to do so, (we) must clarify to make it clear to the public.”

Thailand’s election-winning Pheu Thai Party announced after the July 3 election that it expects to raise the daily minimum wage for workers nationwide to Bt300 (US$10) as early as January next year and a minimum starting salary for university graduates of Bt15,000 (US$500) per month, as promised in its election campaign.

Meanwhile, Buri Ram Chamber of Commerce Chairman Weeradet Tangtrongwetchakit urged the new government to review the plan as it could negatively impact companies and other employers, making them eventually unable to afford employing workers and would be forced to reduce their number.

This would lead to unemployment, he said, adding that the increase of minimum wage should be done gradually, step by step, not leapfrogging in one action.

The government, on the other hand, should provide measures to support both employers and employees, he said.

An owner of a textile factory in Kalasin, Suk Yubomchu, said he wanted government to come up with measures to help enterpreneurs as higher wage could mean higher production costs which would burden them.

“If the government cannot help entrepreneurs, they then would be forced to close their factories,” he said. (MCOT online news)

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Peaceful election positive for Thailand’s credit rating

    July 7, 2011
    Boris Sullivan

A peaceful transfer of power is a step towards reducing the political risk which has been a significant negative factor in Thailand’s country rating since 2006, according to Vincent Milton, Managing Director of Fitch Ratings Thai office.

The prolonged turmoil resulted in a downgrade in the country’s ratings in April 2009, so an actual easing in political risk could be a positive rating factor for Thailand.If the overall political climate improves for a sustained period, consumer and business confidence should continue to recover, barring any external shocks.

This could lead to higher investment and stronger economic growth in the medium term, he said.A robust financial and corporate sector, the government’s fiscal stabilisation and the country’s strong eternal finances are key rating strengths for Thailand.Nonetheless, Fitch will need to see some detail on the new government’s fiscal and broader economic programme to see how this will impact inflation and how the political divisions are bridged in the next few months.

Thailand’s financial sector has so far remained resilient in response to the global financial crisis and domestic political instability. However, a jump in government expenditures could heighten inflationary risks resulting in further pressure on credit quality in the banking system.Fitch views that weakening origination standards in corporate and retail portfolios and concentration risks in corporate lending as well as higher funding costs could pose medium term risks. Strong capital, reserve coverage and profitability should help offset these to some extent.

Also, stricter prudential measures and more restrictive monetary policy settings by the Bank of Thailand could help.Thailand’s credit rating by Fitch is BBB+ while its rating of the local currency long-term senior debts is A- which means stability. MCOT online news

via Fitch Ratings views Thailand’s peaceful election as positive for country’s credit rating.

Director of the Bank of Thailand’s Domestic Economy Department Methee Supapong suggests that the increase to the daily minimum wage, to 300 baht as proposed by the new government, be gradual. He adds that it will have to be approved by the tripartite committee representing the state, employers, and employees, before implementation.

He noted that increasing the wage to 300 baht at once could greatly affect inflation, and that it would be difficult to implement.

Methee suggested that the new government focus on investing in infrastructure projects, as the lack of proper infrastructure is restricting the nation’s development and economic prosperity.

Regarding the new government’s desire to keep policy interest rates low, the director said the most urgent task for his agency is to keep inflation at a level favorable to long-term economic growth.

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Thailand to raise minimum wage to Bt300 early next year

July 6, 2011
Boris Sullivan

Thailand’s election-winning Pheu Thai Party announced Wednesday that it expects to raise the daily minimum wage for workers nationwide to Bt300, or US$10 as early as January next year, as promised in its election campaign.

Pheu Thai Party Secretary-General Jarupong Ruangsuwan made the announcement amid growing public attention to the implementation of the partys economic policy after it announced its plan to form a new government with four smaller parties for a total of 299 votes in parliament.
contruction workers Bangkok

Pheu Thai Party announced Wednesday that it expects to raise the daily minimum wage for workers nationwide to Bt300

The Pheu Thai Party earlier promoted raising the minimum wage of workers across the country to Bt300 per day and starting a minimum salary for new graduates from Bt15,000 per month, campaign promises which are believed to have drawn a large number of votes for the party in Sunday’s election.Mr Jarupong said the Pheu Thai-led government will raise the minimum salary per month to Bt15,000 $500 for civil servants and state enterprise employees this October, while a minimum daily wage hike is expected to begin in January 2012, as the government must talks with the private sector first.

The wage increase will be put into effect after the government creates better understanding on the matter with the private sector and finds appropriate solutions for them such as a corporate income tax reduction and provision of new export markets, according to Mr Jarupong.”The policy on minimum wage rise to Bt300 per day is aimed at helping grassroots people. We affirm that this policy will be equally implemented in every province,” Mr Jarupong promised.

via New government set to raise daily minimum wage to Bt300 early next year.

Previously, The daily minimum wage in Bangkok and surrounding areas has been raised to 215 baht.

The raise, which amounts to an increase of 6.7% on average, was considered a big jump in jan. 2011

The increase took the average minimum wage to 176.3 baht a day, said Somkiat Chayasriwong, the permanent secretary for labour and chairman of the wage committee.

Mr Somkiat attributed the raise to the government’s policy to reduce disparity in society.

The Social Security Office says about 2 million Thai workers and 2 million migrant workers will benefit from the increase.

The raise for Thai workers adds more than 6.92 billion baht to the national payroll, while the increase for migrant workers adds up to more than 7.78 billion baht.

The increase will boost the purchasing power of the 4 million workers by 14.69 billion baht.

The increase of 17 baht in the minimum wage in Phuket, from 204 baht to 221 baht, is the highest in the country.

The minimum wages in Bangkok and nearby provinces were put on an equal footing of 215 baht a day.

The minimum wage in Bangkok and Samut Prakan was raised by nine baht from 206 baht. In Nakhon Pathom, Pathum Thani, Samut Sakhon and Nonthaburi, it was increased by 10 baht from 205 baht.

The size of the work force in Thailand now exceeds 38.24 million (2009 est.), with the majority of the workforce under 35 years of age. Each year about 800,000 people join this force. Many standard labor practices apply, including mandatory severance packages, and overtime payments for work in excess of

The minimum wage in Thailand is currently 206 baht per day in Bangkok and slightly less in the provinces. While not the lowest labor market in the region, Thailand’s workforce is among the most cost-efficient in the world, as they have earned a reputation for diligence and adaptability.

2010 Minimum Daily Wage
Baht Area
206 Bangkok and Samut Prakan
205 Nakorn Pratom, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani and Samut Sakhon
204 Phuket
184 Chonburi and Saraburi
181 Ayutthaya
180 Chachoengsao
178 Rayong
173 Nakhon Ratchasima, Pang-nga and Ranong
171 Chiang Mai
170 Krabi, Prachinburi and Lopburi
169 Kanchanaburi
168 Petchaburi
167 Chantaburi and Ratchaburi
165 Singhaburi and Angthong
164 Prachaub Khiri Khan
163 Loei, Samut Songcram and Sa Kaeo
162 Trang
161 Songkhla
160 Chumporn, Trat, Nakhon Nayok, Narathiwat, Yala, Lamphun and Ubon Ratchatani
159 Nakhon Si Thammarat, Pattani, Pattalung, Satun,Surat Tthani, Nong Khai and Udon Thani
158 Kamphaeng Phet, Chai Nnat, Nakhon Sawan, Suphanburi and Uthai Thani
157 Kalasin, Khon Kaen, Chaing Rai, Buri Ram, Yasothon, Roi-et and Sakhon Nakhon
156 Chaiyaphum, Lampang and Nong Bua Lamphoo
155 Nakhon Phanom, Phetchabun, Mukgdahan and Amnat Charoen
154 Maha Sarakham
153 Tak, Phitsanulok, Sukothai, Surin and Uttraradit
152 Nan and Si Saket
151 Payao, Pichit, Phrae and Mae Hong Son

Source: Ministry of Labor, as of January 2010

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Thaksin Thinks and Pheu Thai does

June 16, 2011

Boris Sullivan

Thaksin’s youngest sister, Yingluck, 43, is know poll favorite bet on July 3, prompting fears that Thaksin will use her to seek revenge against his opponents when she becomes prime minister. Others worry that if she loses, or is somehow blocked, his supporters will turn to violent demonstrations, and Thailand will sink into another round of street riots and army crackdown.

A few days ago, the New York Times has a brief profile on Yingluck and some comments on the Thai election. Key excerpts:

Her campaign represents an extraordinary resurrection for Mr. Thaksin, the most divisive personality in the country. He was pronounced politically dead by many analysts after the coup, and he remains abroad to evade imprisonment for a corruption conviction, as well as a charge of terrorism for his role in backing the red-shirt demonstrations.

“I think very simply Thaksin has made this election about him,” said Chris Baker, a British analyst of Thai politics who has written a biography of Mr. Thaksin. “I think he did it not just by moving in Yingluck but also by the statement on the election posters: ‘Thaksin thinks and the party does.’ ”
Thaksin thinks and Pheu Thai does

Thaksin thinks and Pheu Thai does: the message couldn't possibly be clearer

…
Analysts say that rather than resolving the conflict, the election is likely to lead to more confrontations, either in Parliament, in the streets or through military intervention. The rapid rise and fall of governments in recent years, followed by protests and violence, has demonstrated that neither side is prepared to accept electoral defeat.

“We are in the middle of change of historic proportions in Thai political society, and a change that will take a long time to work through,” Mr. Baker said. “I’m talking 10 years, that sort of time frame. Along that way there are going to be various crises and various negotiations.”

More:
New York Times on Yingluck and Thai election

Puea Thai, which translates as “For Thais”, flew in its most potent speakers for the rally, masters of the spicy mix of entertainment and outrage that are typical of Thai politics. But the biggest cheer was kept for Yingluck Shinawatra. With her telegenic good looks and powerful political support, Yingluck Shinawatra is shaking up Thailand’s first parliamentary election since a wave of political violence last year.

Thaksin’s youngest sister, Yingluck, 43, may win on July 3, prompting fears that Thaksin will use her to seek revenge against his opponents when she becomes prime minister in a coalition government. Others worry that if she loses, or is somehow blocked .

Thaksin was first elected in 2001, and brought a significant change to Thai politics. Though wealthy himself, he implemented populist policies, such as inexpensive universal healthcare that clearly benefited the poor. He also showed Thailand’s working classes that, in a real democracy, if they united they could elect a politician who responded to their concerns, which had never happened before in Thai politics.

In a recent interview with the Bangkok Post, Yingluck confirmed there will be an amnesty under her government if she wins the elections

What should the amnesty law be like?

An amnesty law is one of the components making up the reconciliation model. If it comes to pass that an amnesty law is needed, everyone must be pardoned, not just a single individual. We must hold fast to the legal principle that everyone is treated equally.

…/…

You wouldn’t deny then that your brother Thaksin Shinawatra is the real purpose of the amnesty law?

Don’t say that he is the goal. If Thaksin is to receive an amnesty, he will get it along with everyone else. My goal is to work for everyone, not just for one individual.

I want to apply equal justice for everyone. If anyone receiving injustice gets an amnesty, Thaksin will get it as well. It is not about targeting Thaksin as the main goal.

It is just not true because I want to solve problems for the people, and if we have the chance to form the government, people’s problems are the priority

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OVERCOMPLICATED TRADING

Human tends to over-complicate things. It is in our nature to try and improve what we have but most of the time we overcomplicated things and forget about the simple solution.

In my previous post, I posted a chart of a basic system. It consist of candle stick chart, moving average and macd. Only 3 indicators and it is a very simple system rite?

The answer is, it is not so simple actually. Candle stick alone tell you 4 things that is, open, close, high and low price. MA tells you direction of trend, entry point, start and end of trend. Macd tell you trend, entry point, reversal point.

From only 3 indicators there are actually 11 information cramp into that small chart. Too much info and decision making is a hard job. Though i filter comments, no one has actually ask about the amount of information on chart. It seems people can accept 11 information at once. Can you manage 11 input at once and make a decision out of it??

Trading is actually much simpler. It is actually possible to make profit with only 1 information. Believe it or not??

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China official plays down yuan shift

BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Chen Jian on Sunday played down talk of a shift in the central bank's currency policy as well as mounting expectations of a rise in the yuan's exchange rate. Speculation that China might let the yuan resume its climb after a 16-month pause swirled after a change last Wednesday in the long-standing wording used by the People's Bank of China to describe its currency stance.



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China official plays down yuan shift

BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Chen Jian on Sunday played down talk of a shift in the central bank's currency policy as well as mounting expectations of a rise in the yuan's exchange rate.

Speculation that China might let the yuan resume its climb after a 16-month pause swirled after a change last Wednesday in the long-standing wording used by the People's Bank of China to describe its currency stance.

In its third quarter monetary policy report, the central bank failed to refer to keeping the yuan "basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level" when discussing the outlook for the exchange rate.

Asked whether the PBOC was heralding a return to the gradual appreciation of the yuan against the dollar seen from July 2005-July 2008, Chen told Reuters: "I don't think the central bank meant to say that."

Chen, however, said the yuan should reflect movements in major international currencies, which was also part of the PBOC's policy formulation.

China is coming under growing international pressure to let the yuan rise. Its manufacturers have been gaining market share at the expense of rivals in countries whose currencies have risen against the falling dollar, to which the yuan is pegged.

But, speaking on the sidelines of a forum, Chen said his ministry was not worried about rising appreciation expectations.

Turning to China's trade, Chen said there was only a small chance that exports would resume year-on-year growth by the end of 2009.

Many private economists, by contrast, expect positive growth in November or December because of the low base of comparison in 2008. Exports in October were 13.8 percent lower than a year earlier.

Chen also said a leap in China's trade surplus to $24 billion in October from $12.9 billion in September did not constitute a new trend.

(Reporting by Aileen Wang and Alan Wheatley; Editing by Alex Richardson)

(c) Reuters 2009. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuters sphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group of companies around the world.

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No double-dip US recession

The pace of the recovery in the US economy remains sluggish but Mr Strauss-Kahn does not believe there will be a double-dip recession. -- PHOTO: AFP

THE International Monetary Fund's managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, said on Friday the pace of the recovery in the US economy remains sluggish but he does not believe there will be a double-dip recession.

He also said China's economic stimulus is helping to rebalance its economy towards relying more on domestic demand but it still needs to let its currency rise over time.

In October, the IMF raised its US growth outlook to 1.5 per cent in 2010 but Mr Strauss-Kahn said that forecast could be on the pessimistic side.

'Our forecast has that, not only in the United States but also for the rest of the world, 2010 will be a year of recovery,' Mr Strauss-Kahn told a news conference in Singapore where he was attending an Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) meeting.

'I must say, in some respects, we had been a little pessimistic because growth has resumed a little earlier than expected, by one quarter or so.'

He said the dollar had remained resilient throughout the global crisis but most Asian currencies were undervalued and reiterated calls for the Chinese yuan to be revalued. 'China's economy in the coming years will be focused on domestic growth and the value of renminbi will have to be increased,' he said. -- THOMSON REUTERS

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Obama under fire on trade as Asia-Pacific leaders meet

US President Barack Obama, left, shakes hands with Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong before the gala dinner for APEC leaders in Singapore. Photo: AP

US President Barack Obama has come under fire from Asia-Pacific leaders for backsliding on free trade at a regional summit devoted to driving the world economy out of crisis.

"President Obama is facing severe political constraints that run counter to free trade," Mexican President Felipe Calderon said, complaining about US foot-dragging on full implementation of the NAFTA pact for North America.

"The cruel paradox is that within a global economy, what really kills companies is inefficiency and lack of competition. Therefore protectionism is killing North American companies," he said in a speech in Singapore on Saturday.

"So I think this has to do with the fact that the US government is under strong political pressure that really is not being counteracted from the political perspective" of the Obama administration.

The US Congress has turned even more sour on free trade after the worst economic crisis since World War II.

One landmark pact with South Korea is languishing and critics say the White House has done little to revive it.

The US economy is picking up but unemployment has breached 10 per cent and economic leaders, including the heads of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, warned in Singapore that protectionism could choke off recovery.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said controversial tariffs enacted by his government to shore up ailing industries were temporary and urged his regional colleagues to "do anything we can to refrain from protectionism in any sphere".

The warnings came as a two-day summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) forum began on Saturday.

Obama arrived later in Singapore to join the 20 other leaders, after a visit to Tokyo.

In a speech in the Japanese capital, Obama reaffirmed a US commitment to finally concluding the World Trade Organisation's Doha round of talks - a long-running bid to tear down barriers to global commerce.

And he said the United States was interested in an obscure trade pact that leaders say could become the nucleus for a massive trans-Pacific free-trade zone covering 2.6 billion people.

"The United States will also be engaging with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) countries with the goal of shaping a regional agreement that will have broad-based membership and the high standards worthy of a 21st century trade agreement," he said.

The TPP now involves Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore.

Australia, Peru and Vietnam have expressed interest in joining, and Obama's remarks were the clearest so far about Washington's plans.

"The US announcement is a significant statement of its intent to the Asia-Pacific region," Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean said.

"Importantly, it provides the critical mass essential for this initiative to go forward."

Obama meanwhile called for "balanced and sustained" growth around the world in the post-crisis phase, pressing Asian exporters including China to wean themselves off US consumers and build up their own demand.

His comments underlined a central theme of the APEC summit - that the world economy must be rebalanced so that voracious US consumerism is no longer the sole cylinder firing global growth.

Officials said the realignment was a main item of summit discussion prior to an evening dinner, when the leaders continued an APEC tradition by donning specially designed shirts reflecting the host nation's culture.

AFP

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China bank regulator: US dollar's decline adding risk

Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission

(AFP) – BEIJING — China's chief banking regulator warned Sunday that persistently low US interest rates and a declining dollar were seriously affecting asset prices and threatening the global economic recovery.

China Banking Regulatory Commission Chairman Liu Mingkang told a finance forum in Beijing that Washington's promise to keep interest rates low for an extended period was encouraging a dollar "carry trade" and fuelling massive speculation.

He was referring to investors who have been taking advantage of low US interest rates to borrow cheap credit there to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.

These conditions "are seriously impacting global asset prices and encouraging speculation in stock and property markets," Liu said.

Liu warned the declining US dollar was threatening the global economic recovery, especially in emerging economies.

He spoke at the Beijing International Finance Forum ahead of US President Barack Obama's first visit to China, which was scheduled to start late Sunday.

-- Dow Jones Newswires contributed to this report --

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Broadcast pioneer NBC prepares for cable takeover

By DAVID BAUDER (AP)

FILE - In this Oct. 11, 1976 file photo, NBC's "Today" show host Tom Brokaw and newswoman Jane Pauley share a moment prior to Pauley's first appearance on the network morning news program. Eight decades after pioneering the concept of broadcasting, NBC is on the verge of a startling move that illustrates broadcast television's decline. (AP Photo/File)

NEW YORK — Eight decades after pioneering the concept of broadcasting, NBC is on the verge of a startling move that illustrates broadcast television's decline.

Cable TV operator Comcast Corp. is expected to buy a controlling stake in NBC Universal, perhaps as early as next week, bringing the network of Johnny Carson, Jerry Seinfeld, Bob Hope, Milton Berle and Tom Brokaw under the corporate control of the company that owns the Golf Channel and E! Entertainment Television.

"This is highly symbolic," said Tim Brooks, who had worked at NBC for 20 years and now writes books on television history.

Starting Sunday, Vivendi SA has an option to sell its 20 percent stake in NBC Universal. Majority owner General Electric Co. is expected to buy it and then sell a 51 percent stake of the entire NBC Universal unit to Comcast, which serves about a quarter of the nation's subscription TV households.

Broadcast people, the folks who remember when television was ABC, CBS, NBC and little else, used to look down upon cable.

The idea of broadcast TV was implied in the name; the networks tried to reach the broadest possible audience. For cable it's important to do something specific and do it well, and the audience doesn't need to be as large.

NBC Universal Chief Executive Jeff Zucker recognizes this. Cable properties such as USA, SyFy, CNBC and The Weather Channel mean more to NBC Universal's bottom line than staggering NBC, fourth place in the ratings.

And those cable properties — more than the flagship "Peacock" network — were the draw for Comcast. By owning more content, Comcast further hedges its bets as mainly a distributor of shows in case viewers ditch their cable TV subscriptions and migrate to the Internet, mobile devices or a platform that has yet to emerge. The company could charge for the shows or sell ads wherever the viewers are.

In a sense, NBC would become a pioneer again, as it seeks to stay relevant amid intensifying audience fragmentation.

NBC was established as the nation's first radio network in 1926. Its parent company, the Radio Corporation of America, made radios and realized the best way to get people to buy the product was to make sure there were interesting things to listen to.

"Without NBC, there wouldn't be broadcasting as we know it," said Walter J. Podrazik, a consulting curator at the Museum of Broadcast Communications.

NBC was the leading radio network, so powerful in those days it had two networks: NBC-Red and NBC-Blue. It was forced by the Federal Communications Commission in the early 1940s to divest itself of one network. NBC-Blue eventually became ABC. In fact, all three original broadcast networks can be traced back to NBC. One of its original owners, Westinghouse Electric Co., bought CBS in 1995.

Some of NBC's radio profits were funneled into researching the new television technology. NBC began television broadcasts in 1939 by covering the opening of the New York World's Fair.

RCA's chief David Sarnoff took to the airwaves to introduce that broadcast, and his description of the moment — "the birth of a new art bound to affect all society" — was prescient and maybe even understated. The Nielsen Co. reported that just last year, the average American watched four hours and 49 minutes of television each day.

"He was as much a cheerleader as he was an investor," Podrazik said, "and he was right."

In 1947 came the first NBC program that's still around today — Sunday morning's "Meet the Press." But 1948's "Texaco Star Theater" with Milton Berle was television's first big hit. Many people bought their first TVs, or crowded around the few ones available, to see a comic who'd mine for laughs each week by wearing a dress.

Television's early years had NBC and CBS fighting for dominance, with CBS more often than not gaining the upper hand. NBC settled for innovation, and the work of executive Sylvester "Pat" Weaver is still apparent today. He introduced the concept of multiple ads appearing on shows, instead of programs that had single sponsors, according to the Museum of Broadcast Communications.

Weaver expanded television's day by introducing the "Today" and "Tonight" shows, which became huge profit centers for the network.

"Tonight" was particularly influential, with Steve Allen, Jack Paar and, for more than a quarter-century, Carson. His monologues were the bedtime stories for millions, and he introduced hundreds of talented artists to the public. "Saturday Night Live" is a new generation's comic touchstone.

NBC News expanded in the 1960s, and the evening news report with David Brinkley and Chet Huntley made "Good night, David" and "Good night, Chet" simple catch phrases. News is a strong suit for NBC today, with Brokaw retiring at the top and Brian Williams continuing the legacy. The "Today" show has been No. 1 in the ratings for 726 consecutive weeks.

There's been no such consistency in prime time through the years, however.

NBC slumped in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when the "Supertrain" series became a shorthand for a comically inept idea. Spinoff ABC surpassed NBC in ratings. One man changed all that: Bill Cosby's sitcom dominated television in the mid-1980s, as millions of Americans checked in each week on the Huxtable family.

In the 1990s, NBC's promotion team dubbed Thursdays as a "must-see" night of television. The slogan stuck because it was true. The network's run of memorable series including "Cheers," "Seinfeld," "ER," "Frasier," "Friends" and "The West Wing" represented a golden age. NBC was not simply the most popular network. It was the best. That seems more distant each year, and not just in time.

NBC's decline has been slow, steady and sad. Their "must-see" series all ran their course, replaced by nothing comparable. Each of their rivals minted influential, highly popular reality series — Fox's "American Idol," ABC's "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire" and CBS' "Survivor" — yet the best NBC could do were the moderately successful "The Apprentice" and gross-out show "Fear Factor."

Worse yet is Hollywood's impression that NBC now is more interested in saving money than in producing memorable television.

Famed producer John Wells said as much in criticizing the network for canceling his expensive drama "Southland" this fall before the season's first episode aired. Jay Leno's move to prime-time, replacing more expensive scripted show at the 10 p.m. slot, reduced NBC's audience and influence even more.

NBC is turning, some of its fans fear, into something comparable to a cable network in ambition and reach.

Yet Comcast may give the network hope as audiences turn to video on the Internet and mobile phones. NBC is a founding partner in Hulu, an ad-supported site that lets viewers watch shows for free. NBC's combination with Comcast could let the network take advantage of the cable operator's efforts to reach additional platforms.

The fact that Zucker would likely stay at the helm, reporting to Comcast executives, suggests that the cable operator won't be making major changes overnight.

A Comcast takeover is largely symbolic now, though practical reality ultimately may overshadow that as NBC and other broadcasters face declining audiences.

"The question," Brooks said, "is what will they do with it?"

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